SMU vs California Prediction 1/29/25 College Basketball Picks Today

The California Golden Bears and the SMU Mustangs meet Wednesday in college basketball action from SMU Moody Coliseum. Here’s an SMU vs California prediction. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best SMU vs California pick.

California Golden Bears Betting Preview

California has had quite the wild season so far. The Bears started out on a pretty great run, then ran into trouble in December and January. That said, things have been better in the win column lately. Cal fell to only Vanderbilt in their first seven games, beating Cal State Bakersfield, Cal Poly, USC, Air Force, Sac State, and Mercyhurst in that time. The Bears posted a rough 2-8 run over their next 10 games though, beating only Northwestern State and Virginia. otherwise, it was losses to Missouri, Stanford, Cornell, San Diego State, Pitt, Clemson, Virginia Tech, and North Carolina in that stretch. Since then California is 3-0. Those wins have come versus North Carolina State, Florida State, and Miami in succession, giving the Golden Bears an 11-9 overall record on the year and bringing them back above .500 overall.

In their latest matchup back on Saturday versus Miami, the Bears held a 47-39 edge at the break. California was outscored 40-32 from there, however, and needed overtime to power out a 98-94 victory at home. The Bears’ leading scorer was Jeremiah Wilkinson with 30 points and four rebounds. DJ Campbell added 22 points with seven boards and four assists with a pair of steals, while Jovan Blacksher chipped in with 11 points and three rebounds in 29 minutes.

SMU Mustangs Betting Preview

Over on the Mustangs’ side, they’ve done pretty great in the record column so far this season. SMU has a couple of brief instances of shaky play, but overall it’s been a flurry of Ws on the card. The Mustangs went 4-2 out of the gate in their first half-dozen outings, losing to Butler and Mississippi State with wins otherwise over Tarleton State, Florida A&M, UNC Greensboro, and Prairie View in that time. Wins over Cal Baptist, Washington State, Alabama State, Virginia, LSU, Boston College, and Longwood came in the next seven outings, then consecutive losses to Duke and North Carolina. SMU is 4-1 in their last five games with a lone loss to Louisville in that time. The wins otherwise have been versus Georgia Tech, Virginia, Miami, and NC State, giving the Mustangs a 15-5 overall record so far this season through 20 games.

Matched up against NC State in their Saturday outing, the Mustangs held a 34-26 edge after one half. SMU came out of the locker room to post a 31-29 advantage, finishing off a 63-57 win in the end. Leading the team in scoring was Samet Yigitoglu with 20 points and seven boards. Matt Cross doubled up with 11 points, 10 boards, and one assist, while Kario Oquendo led the bench scoring 13 points, seven rebounds, and one assist in 25 minutes.

Why the SMU Mustangs will win

• SMU has won 11 of its last 12 games against non-AP-ranked opponents.
• California has lost four of its last five games following an overtime win.
• SMU has won the first half in each of its last nine games at Moody Coliseum (Dallas) against non-AP-ranked opponents.

Why the California Golden Bears will win

• The road team has won each of SMU’s last four games.
• The road team has won the first half in each of SMU’s last four games.

SMU vs California Prediction

I’ll stick with SMU. The Mustangs were able to fend off a middling NC State team in a road matchup during their last outing, posting 43.4 percent from the field and a nice 11-of-12 (91.7 percent) from the line. The 43-35 rebounding advantage and the 29.2 percent shooting allowed really helped, but SMU did get into some ball-control trouble. The Mustangs posted 15 turners for 12 Wolfpack points, but the W is what (mostly) counts. SMU has been below 68 points in four of their last seven games (a 4-3 run), and they can give up some sizable point totals to good offenses (like 89 versus Duke and 82 versus UNC).

That said, the Mustangs should be in control here during a comfortable home matchup. California comes in on a three-game win streak, but they had major issues (at home) against a struggling Miami team in their last game. SMU shouldn’t have a ton of issues in this one if all goes well.