In this article we will formulate a Chiefs vs Bills prediction for this NFL game on Sunday, January 26th at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, Missouri. Let’s take a look at the prediction for the AFC Championship Game.
Kansas City Chiefs Betting Preview
The Kansas City Chiefs were 15-2 this season and they are coming off of a 23-14 win over Houston in their last game. Kansas City led 13-6 at halftime, but the lead was cut to 13-12 in the third quarter, before Kansas City pulled away in the game. The Chiefs were out gained by a total of 336-212, tied the turnover battle at zero, and went 4-11 on third down in the game, but they did get a few favorable calls in the victory. Patrick Mahomes threw for 177 yards and one touchdown, while Travis Kelce caught seven passes for 117 yards and one score in the game.
Prior to that win, the Chiefs lost to the Broncos by a score of 38-0, but did beat the Steelers by a score of 29-10 before that. Kansas City has won seven of their last eight games and they won the AFC West by four games over the Chargers. The Kansas City offense has scored 22.6 points per game with 222.4 passing yards and 105.3 rushing yards per game, while the defense has allowed 19.2 points against per game this year. Patrick Mahomes completed 67.5% of his passes for 3,928 yards, 26 touchdowns, and 11 interceptions, while Travis Kelce caught 97 passes for 823 yards and three scores in the regular season.
Buffalo Bills Betting Preview
The Buffalo Bills were 13-4 this year and they are coming off of a 27-25 win over Baltimore in their last game. Buffalo led 21-10 at halftime, but they needed to stop a two point conversion with 1:33 left in the fourth for the win. The Bills were out gained by a total of 416-273, won the turnover battle 3-0, and went 5-11 on third down in the game. Josh Allen threw for 127 yards on 16 completions, while James Cook rushed for 67 yards on 17 carries in the game.
Prior to that victory, the Bills defeated the Broncos by a score of 31-7 in the Wild Card round. Buffalo has won five of their last six games and they won the AFC East by five games over the Dolphins. The Buffalo offense has scored 30.9 points per game with 227.9 passing yards and 131.2 rushing yards per game, while the defense has allowed 21.6 points against per game this season. Josh Allen has completed 75% of his passes for 399 yards and two touchdowns, while James Cook has rushed for 187 yards and one score in the playoffs.
The First Meeting
Buffalo defeated Kansas City by a score of 30-21 back on November 17th at Highmark Stadium in Buffalo. The Bills led 16-14 at halftime and they were able to score two touchdowns in the fourth quarter to secure the win. Buffalo out gained KC by a total of 366-259, won the turnover battle 2-1, and went 9-15 on third down in the game.
Why the Bills will beat the Chiefs
- The Bills have won each of their last five Sunday games against teams that held a winning record.
- The Bills have covered the spread in each of their last five games against teams that held a winning record.
- The Chiefs have failed to cover the spread in each of their last four Sunday games against teams that held a winning record.
- The Bills have scored the first touchdown in seven of their last eight games at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium.
- The Bills have won the first quarter in six of their last seven games as road underdogs against the Chiefs.
- The Bills have won the first half in eight of their last nine games against teams that held a winning record.
Total Points Facts
- Eight of the Chiefs’ last nine games in January have gone UNDER the total points line.
- Each of the Bills’ last four January games as underdogs have gone OVER the total points line.
- Five of the last six Sunday games at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium have gone UNDER the total points line.
Kansas City Chiefs Player Prop Facts
- Isiah Pacheco has scored the last touchdown in three of his last four January appearances.
- Kareem Hunt has scored the first touchdown in three of his four previous January appearances with his team as a favorite.
- Kareem Hunt has scored at least one touchdown in each of his five previous postseason appearances.
- Patrick Mahomes has recorded 262+ passing yards in each of the Chiefs’ last six games as home favorites against AFC East opponents.
- Travis Kelce has recorded 71+ receiving yards in each of the Chiefs’ last 14 postseason games.
- Isiah Pacheco has recorded 40+ rushing yards in 10 of his last 11 Sunday appearances.
- Isiah Pacheco has recorded 47+ rushing and receiving yards in each of his last 10 Sunday appearances.
- Patrick Mahomes has recorded 25+ completions in each of the Chiefs’ last five home games against the Bills.
- Isiah Pacheco is just one away from 5 career playoff touchdowns.
Buffalo Bills Player Prop Facts
- James Cook has scored two or more touchdowns in three of the Bills’ last four road games against teams with a winning record.
- James Cook has scored at least one touchdown in each of the Bills’ last four road games against teams with a winning record.
- Josh Allen has recorded 23+ completions in each of the Bills’ last five games against the Chiefs.
- Amari Cooper has recorded 41+ receiving yards in each of his last six January road appearances.
- Josh Allen has recorded 233+ passing yards in each of the Bills’ last eight road games against AFC West opponents.
- James Cook has recorded 61+ rushing yards in each of the Bills’ last four postseason games.
- Curtis Samuel has recorded 32+ rushing and receiving yards in seven of his eight previous appearances against AFC West opponents.
- James Cook ranked T1st in the NFL in rushing touchdowns (16) during the reg. season.
Matchup/League Facts
- The Chiefs ranked T1st in the NFL in Q2 win percentage (70.6) during the reg. season.
- The Chiefs were one of only two teams in the NFL to win five games in which they trailed during the fourth quarter during the reg. season.
- The Bills ranked T1st in the NFL in fumbles recovered (16) during the reg. season.
- The Bills ranked 1st in the NFL in turnover differential (+24) during the reg. season.
Chiefs vs Bills Prediction
These two teams meet once again in the postseason, with the winner going to the Super Bowl. Buffalo was able to beat Kansas City in the regular season, but they will be on the road for this game. The Chiefs have only lost twice this season, but they haven’t been overly impressive and have been pretty low scoring offensively. Buffalo has one of the best offenses in the NFL and I think they have the fire power to beat this Kansas City defense. We saw Houston do more than enough to win the game last week in KC and I think Buffalo’s offensive edge will result in the win here. Take the Bills on the road.