The Denver Broncos and the Buffalo Bills meet Sunday in NFL Wild Card Round playoffs action from Highmark Stadium. Here’s a Buffalo Bills vs Denver Broncos prediction. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best Bills vs Broncos pick.
Denver Broncos Betting Preview
The Broncos opened up the season with a couple of losses, and things weren’t looking good initially. Denver fell to the Seahawks and Steelers in their first pair but found their footing with a 5-1 run over the next six games. The Broncos would lose to only the Chargers during that stretch, otherwise taking wins over the Buccaneers, Jets, Saints, and Panthers. The Broncos would lose consecutive games versus the Ravens and Chiefs but headed into the bye with three straight victories over the Falcons, Raiders, and Browns. Over the last four weeks of the regular season, Denver went 2-2, taking another pair of consecutive losses versus the Chargers and Bengals in between victories over the Colts and Chiefs for a 10-7 overall record.
In their Week 18 game versus the Chiefs, Denver essentially played a game against their opponent’s reserves. The Broncos were able to sleepwalk through that matchup, scoring 24 points in the first half (and putting up points in all four quarters) along the way to a 38-0 blowout defeat. Quarterback Bo Nix finished with 321 yards and four passing touchdowns while also leading the rushing attack with seven carries for 47 yards. Leading the receivers was Courtland Sutton with five grabs for 98 yards and a TD. Marvin Mims caught five balls as well for 51 yards and two touchdowns, while Devaughn Vele posted the other receiving TD.
Buffalo Bills Betting Preview
Over on the Bills’ side, they were able to open up the year with three straight wins. Those came versus the Cardinals, Dolphins, and Jaguars. Following Buffalo’s only pair of consecutive losses this season—versus the Ravens and Texans—the Bills recovered with six straight victories going into the bye week. Those were versus the Jets, Titans, Seahawks, Dolphins, Colts and Chiefs. Since then the Bills have been on a 4-2 run over the final six games of the regular season. Buffalo fell versus the Rams and Patriots in that time with victories otherwise versus the 49ers, Lions, Patriots, and Jets. The result was a solid 13-4 overall record this year.
In the Week 18 matchup versus the rival Patriots, the Bills weren’t able to finish off their regular-season campaign with a victory—but the team was mostly using their reserves as the game hardly mattered. Buffalo was down 17-16 going into the final quarter but ended up losing 23-16 in the end. Mitch Trubisky posted 101 passing yards with a score, while Ray Davis led the rushing attack on 15 carries for 64 yards. Curtis Samuel was the leading team receiver with seven catches for 52 yards, and Keon Coleman registered two grabs for 31 yards.
Why the Buffalo Bills will win
- The Bills have won each of their last eight games at Highmark Stadium.
- The Broncos have lost each of their last seven January road games against AFC opponents.
- The favorites have covered the spread in each of the Broncos’ last seven games.
- The Broncos have failed to cover the spread in each of their last five games as underdogs following a home win.
- The Bills have scored the first touchdown in nine of their last 10 postseason games.
- The Broncos have lost the first half in each of their last seven January road games against AFC opponents.
- The Broncos have lost the first quarter in each of their last seven road games in January.
Why the Denver Broncos will win
- The underdogs have won four of the Broncos’ last five postseason games.
- The Bills have lost each of their last two January games as favorites against AFC opponents.
- The Broncos have covered the spread in each of their last five Sunday games.
- The Bills have failed to cover the spread in four of their last five postseason games against AFC opponents.
- The Broncos have scored the first touchdown in each of their last four games against AFC East opponents.
- The underdogs have won the first half in each of the Broncos’ last five postseason games.
- The underdogs have won the first quarter in four of the Broncos’ last five postseason games.
Total Points Facts
- Each of the Broncos’ last eight games following a win has gone OVER the total points line.
- Eight of the Bills’ last nine home games against AFC opponents have gone OVER the total points line.
- Seven of the last nine Sunday games at Highmark Stadium have gone OVER the total points line.
Buffalo Bills Player Prop Facts
- Dawson Knox has scored the first touchdown in each of the Bills’ last four Wild Card Round games.
- James Cook has scored two or more touchdowns in four of the Bills’ last five games against teams with a winning record.
- James Cook has scored at least one touchdown in seven of the Bills’ last eight games.
- Amari Cooper has recorded 34+ receiving yards in 17 of his last 18 appearances with his team as a home favorite against AFC opponents.
- James Cook has recorded 99+ rushing and receiving yards in each of his last six appearances following a loss.
- Josh Allen has recorded 264+ passing yards in four of the Bills’ last five Wild Card Round games.
- James Cook has recorded 67+ rushing yards in each of his last six appearances with the Bills as favorites following a loss.
- Josh Allen has scored the last touchdown in three of the Bills’ last four games as favorites against AFC West opponents.
- Josh Allen has recorded 21+ completions in each of the Bills’ last 10 postseason games.
Denver Broncos Player Prop Facts
- Courtland Sutton has scored a touchdown in four of his five previous road appearances against AFC East opponents.
- Bo Nix has recorded 23+ rushing yards in each of the Broncos’ last four games against AFC opponents.
- Marvin Mims Jr. has recorded 44+ receiving yards in six of the Broncos’ last seven games.
- Marvin Mims Jr. has recorded 42+ rushing and receiving yards in six of the Broncos’ last seven games.
- Bo Nix has recorded 273+ passing yards in three of the Broncos’ last four Sunday games.
- Bo Nix has recorded 20+ completions in seven of the Broncos’ last eight games.
Buffalo Bills vs Denver Broncos Prediction
I’m probably just going to stay with the Bills here. Buffalo didn’t have to do a whole lot versus the Patriots, outside of just getting through the game. The Bills’ stats are reflected in that, as they notched a fairly uncharacteristic 259 total yards (129 passing) and 16 first downs. Buffalo was able to keep a struggling Patriots team in line defensively, however, giving up a modest 19 first downs and 309 total yards. Prior to that matchup, the Bills had scored 30 or more points in nine of their previous 10 games. Buffalo is averaging 30.9 points per game overall this year, with 227.9 yards per game passing (and 30 touchdowns) alongside 131.2 yards per game rushing (and 32 touchdowns.
As for Denver, they’ve overachieved a bit this year and are looking better after a confidence-boosting beatdown of the Chiefs reserves in Week 18. The Broncos have been close in most of their losses this year—only one came by more than a touchdown. That was a 41-10 loss to the Ravens on November 3. Buffalo is capable of putting the Broncos back down though, and I think the Bills will show their stuff at home with a double-digit victory.