Oregon State Beavers (4-3) vs. California Golden Bears (3-4)
October 26, 2024 4:00 pm EDT
The Line: California Golden Bears -9.5 / Oregon State Beavers +9.5; Over/Under: -
(Get latest betting odds)
The Oregon State Beavers and the California Golden Bears will meet on Saturday in college football action from California Memorial Stadium. Here’s a California vs Oregon State prediction. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best California vs Oregon State pick.
Oregon State Beavers Betting Preview
The Beavers won their first pair this year over Idaho State and San Diego State before falling big to Oregon 49-14 in game three. Oregon State would then take out Purdue and Colorado State (OT) before another loss to Nevada 42-37 in game six.
In the UNLV game over the weekend, the Beavers were outscored 17-8 in the second half along the way to a 33-25 defeat. QB Gevani McCoy finished with 231 yards and two rushing touchdowns. Trent Walker was tops in receiving with nine grabs for 88 yards.
California Golden Bears Betting Preview
Over on the California side, they got three wins out of the gate over UC Davis, Auburn, and San Diego State. The Golden Bears would lose to Florida State 14-9, Miami-FL 39-38, and Pittsburgh 17-15 over the next trio, however.
Matched up against NC State last weekend, the Bears gave up 14 unanswered points in the fourth quarter and took a tough loss 24-23. Fernando Mendoza logged 282 yards in the loss on 30-of-42 passing. Jaivian Thomas led the rush with 78 yards and two scores on nine totes.
Why the California Golden Bears will win
- The favorite has won 17 of California’s last 18 games at California Memorial Stadium.
- Oregon State has lost each of its last seven games as an underdog.
- Oregon State has failed to cover the spread in each of its last four October games against non-AP-ranked teams.
- California has covered the spread in four of its last five games against opponents from the Pac-12 Conference.
- California has won the first quarter in four of its last five home games against non-conference opponents.
- California has won the first half in 11 of its last 12 home games against non-conference opponents.
Why the Oregon State Beavers will win
- California has lost each of its last 10 games in October.
- Oregon State has won four of its last five October games as an underdog against non-AP-ranked teams.
- California has failed to cover the spread in six of its last seven October games as a home favorite against non-AP-ranked teams.
- Oregon State has covered the spread in five of its last six games as an underdog against non-AP-ranked teams.
- Oregon State has won the first half in 13 of its last 15 games against non-conference opponents.
Total Points Facts
- Each of California’s last six games against non-conference opponents has gone UNDER the total points line.
- Five of Oregon State’s last six road games in October have gone OVER the total points line.
Matchup/League Facts
- California ranks T2nd among FBS teams for interceptions this season (13).
- California ranks 5th among FBS teams for Q3 opponent points per game this season (1.1).
- Oregon State ranks 1st among FBS teams for time of possession per game this season (35:30).
- Oregon State ranks 5th among FBS teams for 1st downs this season (178).
California vs Oregon State Prediction
I’ll stay with Oregon State. The Beavers’ defense gave up 384 yards (188 rushing), 21 first downs and an 8-of-16 rate on third-down tries in their loss to UNLV over the weekend. Oregon State posted a spotty 6-of-16 rate on third-down conversions themselves during a muted offensive day. The Beavers have still scored 25 or more points in four straight games, though.
As for Cal, they went just 2-of-14 on third downs in their one-point loss to NC State. The good news is that the Bears picked up a couple of lost fumbles and held the Wolf Pack to just 15 first downs. That said, it was a rough fourth quarter. I like this one to be fairly close most of the way, with Oregon State eking out a cover in the end.
