Alex Pereira Betting Preview

Pereira has won 3 straight fights and is coming off an April win over Jamahal Hill. Pereira is averaging 5.10 significant strikes per minute, with an accuracy percentage of 62 percent. Pereira is averaging 0.18 takedowns with an accuracy percentage of 100 percent. Pereira is coming off a knockout win at UFC 300 and is jumping right back into the octagon. In the victory, Pereira landed 24 total strikes and 80 percent of his significant strikes. Pereira has seen 5 of his last 6 fights end in knockouts. Pereira, who turns 37 years old in a week, is fighting for the third time since November. He comes from a deep kickboxing and boxing background, and has shown a flawless transition to MMA. A creative striker who is a black belt in kickboxing, Pereira is dangerous on his feet and has a good takedown defense as well. It’s rather impressive to see Pereira adapt to new rules under such a short time, and he’s more than established as one of the top fighters under the UFC banner. This will be Pereira’s fourth career fight in Nevada.

Jiri Prochazka Betting Preview

Prochazka has won 10 of his last 11 fights and is coming off an April win over Aleksandar Rakic. Prochazka is averaging 5.75 significant strikes per minute, with an accuracy percentage of 56 percent. Prochazka is averaging 0.79 takedowns with an accuracy percentage of 60 percent. Prochazka is coming off a knockout win at UFC 300 that earned performance of the night honors. Prochazka landed 69 total strikes in the victory and produced 1 takedown. Prochazka has produced finishes in each of his last 12 victories. At 31 years old, Prochazka will also fight for the third time since November. Prochazka is a lengthy fighter at 6’4” and 80-inch reach, and he has ridiculous power in his hands and an aggressive style where he stands in the pocket and trades. Prochazka can be creative with his strikes as well, as he’ll mix in a flying knee and has produced a finish with a spinning back elbow. Prochazka has decent takedown defense at 68 percent. Prochazka has been finished in all 4 of his losses, including being knocked out 3 times. This will be Prochazka’s third career fight in Nevada.

Jiri Prochazka vs Alex Pereira Prediction

A rematch of UFC 295 where Pereira landed 49 total strikes and produced a second round knockout. Prochazka and the plus money is always appealing, but I’m going with the same prediction I had in the first bout. Pereira is the better pure striker, and that’s key in a fight that’s likely going to be on the feet. Neither of these guys have been aggressive to take a fight to the canvas.

Pereira has been the more accurate striker under the UFC banner. His leg kicks should give him an edge standing up, and he has the slightly better takedown defense as well. I like Pereira to beat Prochazka for the second time, and the reasonable price is hard to turn down.

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Before we look at who should be in your Pick6 lineup, let’s go over a reminder about how the contest works. 

The goal for participants is to make more correct picks than the other participants in each contest. Winning entries receive a share of the available prizes. In Pick6, participants can build lineups of between 2 and 6 players and compete against participants with the same lineup size. The more picks you include in a lineup, the higher a payout could be.

Dominick Reyes Under 41.5 Significant Strikes

Dominick Reyes has been awful heading into this fight, and it’s not going to any different in this one. In his last fight against Ryan Spann he only last a minute and 20 seconds before he was knocked out, and in that fight he finished with only five significant strikes. He’s going to be knocked out early here, and will finish under 41.5 significant strikes. 

Raul Rosas Jr Under 32.5 Signficant Strikes

Raul Rosas Jr probably dominates this fight, but I feel it’s going to be his grappling that is going to be the difference, and he’s going to get this fight to the ground. Rosas Jr also could get the knockout early like he diid in his last fight where he only finished with 16 significant strikes. Rosas Jr is going to finish with right around 20 or 25 significant strikes and the under 32.5 significant strikes is going to cash. 

Jared Cannonier Over 111.5 Significant Strikes Per Minute

Jared Cannonier was dominant in his last fight, and it’s going to be much of the same here. Cannonier faced off against Marvin Vettori in June 2023 and he had 241 significant strikes. He is going to have no issue here wearing down Imavov and that is going to be the difference here. Cannonier is going to finish with at least 112 significant strikes per minute. 

Thiago Moises Over 1.5 Takedowns

Thiago Moises is going to finish with at least two takedowns here. In two of the last three games, Moises has finished with at least two takedowns. Three fights ago he finished with four and that’s where he’s going to finish here. Moises is going to finish with two or three takedowns and the over will cash.

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Before we look at who should be in your Pick6 lineup, let’s go over a reminder about how the contest works. 

The goal for participants is to make more correct picks than the other participants in each contest. Winning entries receive a share of the available prizes. In Pick6, participants can build lineups of between 2 and 6 players and compete against participants with the same lineup size. The more picks you include in a lineup, the higher a payout could be.

Sean Strickland Over 127.5 Significant Strikes

Sean Strickland seems to have been given a pretty cushy matchup against Paulo Costa, but I do believe Costa is going to find a way to not get knocked out, which will be huge in this significant strikes going over. This fight is also going to go five rounds, and that means plenty of time for Strickland to pick apart Costa. In his last fight, Strickland had 173 significant strikes, and he’s going to dominate here. Strickland will land at least 128 significant strikes. 

Kevin Holland Over 97.5 Fantasy Points

Holland, at times, has been inconsistent, but he is still a much better fighter here. Holland is a volume fighter, and that is a huge key in fantasy points. This one might go to a decision, but Holland is still going to have so many significant strikes that he’s going to have a huge fantasy day here. Back Holland over 97.5 fantasy points. 

Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos Under 52.5 Fantasy Points

Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos has a very tough matchup going against Randy Brown, and he’s going to be dominated in this fight. Brown has a huge height and reach advantage here, and Zaleski dos Santos is going to have struggles landing significant strikes here. He could be knocked out early, and he will finish under 52.5 fantasy points. 

Mickey Gall over 25.5 Significant Strikes

Mickey Gall is being counted here, but I expect he’s going to find success. Two fights ago, even though Gall lost he had 65 significant strikes. Bassil Hafez is probably the better fighter and Gall might still lose this, but he’s not going to go down without a fight. Gall will finish over 25.5 significant strikes.

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Rodriguez has won 8 of his last 10 fights and is coming off a November loss to Neil Magny. Rodriguez is averaging 7.42 significant strikes per minute, with an accuracy percentage of 50 percent. Rodriguez is averaging 0.63 takedowns with an accuracy percentage of 50 percent. Rodriguez is coming off a submission loss at UFC Fight Night 214 where he landed 71 total strikes and 61 percent of his significant strikes. It was the first time Rodriguez has been finished in his career, and he hopes to avoid back to back losses for the first time. Rodriguez is now 8-2 under the UFC banner. Rodriguez is a striker at heart who works behind his jab and has a powerful left hand. He’s most effective on his feet, but he can be a bit wild at times and has issues finding his range. A southpaw with a pro boxing background, Rodriguez has 8 career knockouts and 4 career submissions. This will be Rodriguez’s first career fight in North Carolina.

This will be Garry’s fourth fight since 2022 and is coming off a March win over Song Kenan. Garry is averaging 6.79 significant strikes per minute, with an accuracy percentage of 56 percent. Garry is averaging 0.30 takedowns with an accuracy percentage of 50 percent. Garry is coming off a knockout win at UFC 285 where he landed 127 total strikes and ate 61 total strikes. Garry now has 6 career knockouts, and he’s 4-0 under the UFC banner. Garry is a well-rounded fighter at 25 years old and comes from a boxing background while having a black belt in Judo. Garry has terrific striking with legit knockout power, his takedown defense is excellent, and his cardio has helped him win 4 career decisions. Garry has all of the tools to be a problem in this division, and the youth is on his side. However, we’ll know more about Garry once he eventually faces adversity in the octagon, as he’s dominated up to this point. This will be Garry’s first career fight in North Carolina.

Rodriguez is far from a pushover, and he has the volume striking that will give him a shot to spring the upset. The problem is Garry has been so flawless up to this point, he’s hard to bet against. As from my write-up, I’m pretty high on Garry and his ability, and I do believe he could eventually make a run at a title. I’m just not trying to step in front of Garry and his ability.

I’ll take Garry by finish to shave down the juice as well.

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Morono has won 7 of his last 10 fights and is coming off a December loss to Santiago Ponzinibbio. Morono is averaging 5.22 significant strikes per minute, with an accuracy percentage of 42 percent. Morono is averaging 0.30 takedowns with an accuracy percentage of 20 percent. Morono is coming off a UFC 282 knockout loss where he landed 38 total strikes and ate 66 total strikes. The fight snapped a 4-fight winning streak and was the fourth time Morono has been knocked out. Morono hopes to avoid back to back losses for the first time in his career. Morono is a balanced fighter with a submission game and knockout power, and he’s a black belt in BJJ and Taekwondo. At 32 years old, Morono’s cardio allows him to be effective in each round. Morono has never been submitted in his career. This will be Morono’s first career fight in North Carolina.

Means has split his last 10 fights and is coming off an October loss to Max Griffin. Means is averaging 4.91 significant strikes per minute with an accuracy percentage of 48 percent. Means is averaging 1.13 takedowns with an accuracy percentage of 41 percent. Means is coming off a decision loss at UFC Fight Night 213 where he landed 143 total strikes and ate 56 total strikes. A bit of a controversial loss, but Means now hopes to avoid 3 straight losses for the first time in his career. Means is an athletic fighter who comes from a boxing background and does his best work standing up, where he has a high work rate and solid defense. Means doesn’t take a lot of punishment on the feet and has only been knocked out twice in 14 career losses. Means has above-average takedown defense and has 5 career submission victories. Means has 19 career knockouts and has finished 24 of his 32 wins overall. This will be Means’ first career fight in North Carolina.

Morono is going to be the obvious favorite as he’s the younger fighter, in better form and has the athletic edge at this stage. However, Means isn’t a pushover, even as he’s approaching 40 years old. Means still has power that needs to be respected, he can take shots, and you could argue he’ll have the grappling edge here as well. Also, Means is the bigger fighter, with a 3-inch reach advantage. There are a lot of things to like with Means entering this contest.

Give me Means for the upset.

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Smith has split his last 8 fights and is coming off a July loss to Magomed Ankalaev. Smith is averaging 2.99 significant strikes per minute, with an accuracy percentage of 47 percent. Smith is averaging 0.44 takedowns with an accuracy percentage of 27 percent. Smith is coming off a knockout loss at UFC 277 where he landed 21 total strikes and ate 64 total strikes. The loss snapped a 3-fight winning streak, and he’s now been knocked out 10 times in 17 losses. Smith is an athletic striker who is creative on his feet and has true one-punch knockout power. He’s one of the toughest fighters in the sport, as he can take a punch with the best of them and hang in there. Smith is highly effective with his legs and knees, and he’s comfortable on the canvas, where he has 14 career submission victories. A black belt in BJJ and with his striking ability, Smith is one of the more respected fighters in terms of MMA fans. However, Smith has taken punishment over the years, and he’ll soon be 35 years old, so it does feel like the click is ticking a bit. This will be Smith’s first career fight in North Carolina.

Walker has split his last 8 fights and is coming off a January win over Paul Craig. Walker is averaging 3.38 significant strikes per minute, with an accuracy percentage of 60 percent. Walker is averaging 0.41 takedowns with an accuracy percentage of 100 percent. Walker is coming off a knockout win at UFC 283 where he landed 17 strikes and ate 3 strikes. Walker has put together back to back wins and now has 16 career knockouts. Just when the hype with Walker was dying down, he puts together two impressive finishes to turn some heads. Walker throws everything hard with great variety, and 19 of his 20 victories have been finishes. Walker is very athletic for a guy his size and fights with a great deal of pressure that allows him to take chances. Walker is one of the more powerful and creative fighters in the sport and a brown belt in BJJ. Walker has seen 20 of his 27 fights overall end in knockouts. This will be Walker’s first career fight in North Carolina.

Neither fighter attempts takedowns often, so this is likely going to be a stand and bang style fight. If that’s the case, I have to give Walker the edge. Walker is the bigger fighter, with a two-inch height edge and 6 inch reach advantage. Walker is also the younger fighter of the two and has taken less damage over the years. While Smith is as tough as nails, he’s been in wars over the years and those add up, especially in a fight like this where he’s sure to take more shots.

Toss up, pick ’em, must watch fight. I still lean Walker.

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Rozenstruik has split his last 8 fights, and he’s coming off a December win over Chris Daukaus. Rozenstruik is averaging 2.93 significant strikes per minute, with an accuracy percentage of 46 percent. Rozenstruik is averaging 0 takedowns with an accuracy percentage of 0 percent. Rozenstruik is coming off a knockout win at UFC 282 where he landed 12 total strikes and earned performance of the night. The fight lasted just 23 seconds, and Rozenstruik now looks for back to back wins for the first time since 2019. Rozenstruik is now 7-4 under the UFC banner, and his last two wins have earned performance bonuses. Rozenstruik is an established fighter at 35 years old who comes from a boxing and kickboxing background, and he has obvious clear KO power in either hand. Rozenstruik is the most comfortable standing up, as he was highly successful at kickboxing with a 76-8 record, and he throws these hooks that are downright scary with a 78-inch reach. There are no surprises with Rozenstruik, as he’s shown little in terms of clinch work or on the ground. It’s all stand and bang with Rozenstruik, and it’s led to 12 of his 13 wins being knockouts. This will be Rozenstruik’s first career fight in North Carolina.

Almeida has won his last 13 fights, and he’s coming off a January win over Shamil Abdurakhimov. Almeida is averaging 4.19 significant strikes per minute, with an accuracy percentage of 64 percent. Almeida is averaging 6.73 takedowns with an accuracy percentage of 70 percent. Almeida is coming off a knockout win at UFC 283 where he landed 89 total strikes and produced 3 takedowns. The victory earned performance of the night honors. Almeida is now 5-0 under the UFC banner and hasn’t lost a fight since Shooto Brazil 80 back in 2018. Almeida is a black belt in BJJ and most comfortable on the canvas, where he’s produced 11 career submissions. Almeida has shown incredible takedown ability, but he’s also done enough on the feet that allows him to close the distance and go to work. Almeida has terrific ground and pound and has 7 career knockouts, so he’s a little more than grappling and wrestling. Almeida has seen just 1 of his 20 fights end in a decision, which was his last loss, more than 5 years ago. This will be Almeida’s first career fight in North Carolina.

Almeida is the more balanced fighter who has a clear edge if he gets this fight where he wants it. There’s no surprise he’s favored, and I’ve said many times previously that Rozenstruik is overrated. With all that said, we’re getting 4 times our money with Rozenstruik, a guy who has one punch KO power. Rozenstruik doesn’t have to be perfect, he just needs to land one shot and this bout is finished. There’s some beauty in getting knockout artists and big plus money.

Again, Almeida should win and is the more complete fighter, but the value of the betting odds is with Rozenstruik and the massive plus money.

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Andrade has split her last 8 fights and is coming off a February loss to Erin Blanchfield. Andrade is averaging 6.84 significant strikes per minute, with an accuracy percentage of 51 percent. Andrade is averaging 2.64 takedowns with an accuracy percentage of 54 percent. Andrade is coming off a submission loss at UFC Fight Night 219 where she landed 56 total strikes and 37 percent of her significant strikes. Andrade has now been submitted 3 times in her career and hopes to avoid back-to-back losses for the second time in her career. Andrade is a pressure fighter who usually gets the best of her opponent on her feet with constant wild punches and a lot of pop behind her strikes. Andrade is violent standing up and has a great ground and pound, and while she’s known for her striking, she’s also a successful takedown artist with 8 submission victories. A black belt in BJJ, Andrade has the upper body strength to get a fight wherever she wants, and her aggressiveness and brute power makes her one of the scarier fighters on the women’s side. This will be Andrade’s first career fight in New Jersey.

Xiaonan has won 7 of her last 9 fights and is coming off an October win over Mackenzie Dern. Xiaonan is averaging 5.45 significant strikes per minute, with an accuracy percentage of 44 percent. Xiaonan is averaging 0.87 takedowns with an accuracy percentage of 66 percent. Xiaonan is coming off a decision win at UFC Fight Night 211 where she landed 151 total strikes and 57 percent of her significant strikes. Xiaonan has won 9 of her 10 career decisions, and 8 of her last 9 bouts have gone the distance. Xiaonan is now 7-2 under the UFC banner. Xiaonan is a blue belt in BJJ and has a background in Sanda, so she’s a very comfortable standup striker who has 7 career knockouts and will mix in some leg kicks with her power punches. Xiaonan has improved her takedown ability over the years, has shown above-average takedown defense, but she’s never won a fight by submission. Xiaonan is hard to hit on the feet and usually controls things in the clinch, where she’s become much more confident with taking a fight to the ground. This will be Xiaonan’s first career fight in New Jersey.

Andrade is going to be favored for obvious reasons, as she has the resume, the name and is the more balanced, polished fighter. I get it. Andrade is an absolute unit. However, there’s value with Xiaonan and the plus money. Xiaonan has the power striking to stand with Andrade, she’s gotten more comfortable in the clinch and has high level takedown defense. If Xiaonan can keep this on the feet, she gives herself a chance to win standing and banging.

I’ll take a shot with Xiaonan and the big plus money.

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Muhammad has won 8 of his last 9 fights and is coming off an October win over Sean Brady. He is averaging 4.47 significant strikes per minute, with an accuracy percentage of 42 percent. Muhammad is averaging 2.19 takedowns with an accuracy percentage of 35 percent. Muhammad is coming off a knockout win at UFC 280 where he landed 80 total strikes and 38 percent of his significant strikes. The victory earned performance of the night honors. Muhammad hasn’t lost a fight since his bout against UFC Fight Night 143. Muhammad has proven to be a balanced fighter who does some of his best work on his feet. He also has a terrific gas tank that’s helped him win 16 of his 18 career decisions. Muhammad usually always gets the fight where he wants, and he does a great job of controlling the pace and not allowing his opponent to dictate much. Muhammad has never been submitted in his career. A purple belt in BJJ, Muhammad may not overwhelm his opponent, but he knows how to win and doesn’t allow his opponent to get comfortable. This will be Muhammad’s first career fight in New Jersey.

Burns has won 9 of his last 11 fights and is coming off an April win over Jorge Masvidal. Burns is averaging 3.38 significant strikes per minute, with an accuracy percentage of 47 percent. Burns is averaging 2.16 takedowns with an accuracy percentage of 37 percent. Burns is coming off a decision win at UFC 287 where he landed 72 total strikes and produced 4 takedowns. It was a dominating performance from Burns, but it will be interesting to see how he looks fighting in back-to-back months. A win here would be 3 victories for Burns this year, putting him in the convo for fighter of the year. Burns has a decorated grappling background with plenty of experience in wrestling, and he’s a third degree black belt in BJJ. Burns is quick to find a submission hold once he gets the bout to the canvas and few have his grappling credentials, but he’s also decent on his feet with some pop in his hands and a come forward style. Burns doesn’t look as uncomfortable standing up as many guys with his background do, and he has 6 knockouts on his resume. At 36 years old, Burns has really come along these last few years and has improved his resume greatly. This will be Burns’ first career fight in New Jersey.

Muhammad and the plus money is intriguing, especially with Burns just fighting 5 rounds last month. Who knows what Burns looks like after just being in the octagon. Still, I’m going to back Burns and the cheap price. Burns is the more balanced fighter in terms of the ground game, but he has more to his stand-up and the pop is there to put fear in Muhammad.

Burns should win this fight and put his name in the convo for fighter of the year.

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Sterling has won each of his last 8 fights and is coming off an October win over T.J. Dillashaw. Sterling is averaging 4.70 significant strikes per minute, with an accuracy percentage of 51 percent. Sterling is averaging 1.98 takedowns with an accuracy percentage of 24 percent. Sterling is coming off a knockout win at UFC 280 where he landed 148 total strikes and produced 5 takedowns. The victory put to rest some of the doubts after a DQ win over Yan back in UFC 259. Sterling still hasn’t lost a bout since UFC Fight Night 123. Sterling is an accurate striker with an impressive work rate, and he’s a black belt in BJJ. Sterling has a background in Division III wrestling, and he’s never been submitted, while he has 8 career submissions of his own. Sterling has become a really balanced fighter, and he’s experiencing his best results at nearly 34 years old. This will be Sterling’s 10th career fight in New Jersey.

Cejudo has won each of his last 6 fights and is coming off a May (2020) win over Dominick Cruz. Cejudo is averaging 3.92 significant strikes per minute, with an accuracy percentage of 45 percent. Cejudo is averaging 2.12 takedowns with an accuracy percentage of 33 percent. Cejudo is coming off a knockout win at UFC 249 for the UFC Bantamweight Championship, where he retired a couple of weeks later. It’s going to be interesting to see what Cejudo looks like, as he hasn’t fought in 3 years and is no longer a spring chicken at 36 years old. Cejudo is one of the most decorated wrestlers in the sport, which includes a gold medal in Beijing and other gold medals in various other competitions. Cejudo is a yellow belt in Shotokan. While Cejudo is known for his ground game, he can hold his own on the feet and has some pop in his hands as well. Cejudo has 8 career knockouts, and his last 3 bouts have ended in the stoppage. This will be Cejudo’s first career fight in New Jersey.

Cejudo is obviously capable of winning this fight, but I’m not sure how anybody can back him with confidence given the 3-year hiatus. I don’t like backing fighters who have been out of the sport for an extended period of time, and it’s pretty steep with Cejudo. Sterling is fighting his best of his career, and getting the slightly cheaper price is hard to ignore. This line is actually kind of disrespectful to Sterling, as I’d assume Cejudo would be -150 or higher if it weren’t for the layoff. I’m not buying it.

Give me Sterling.

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Yadong has won 7 of his last 10 fights and is coming off a September loss to Cory Sandhagen. Yadong is averaging 4.55 significant strikes per minute, with an accuracy percentage of 41 percent. Yadong is averaging 0.63 takedowns with an accuracy percentage of 55 percent. Yadong is coming off a knockout loss at UFC Fight Night 210 where landed 130 total strikes and ate 130 total strikes. The loss snapped a 3-fight winning streak, and it was the second time Yadong has been knocked out in his career. The Kung Fu Monkey is only 25 years old, but he has a decade of pro experience already and is 8-2-1 under the UFC banner. Yadong comes from a Chinese kung fu background, but he’s a balanced fighter who is most comfortable standing up and relying on his boxing. Yadong has to become more comfortable with his wrestling if he’s going to take that next step in his career. This will be Yadong’s sixth career fight in Nevada.

Simon has won 5 straight fights and is coming off a July win over Jack Shore. Simon is averaging 3.04 significant strikes per minute, with an accuracy percentage of 44 percent. Simon is averaging 6.55 takedowns with an accuracy percentage of 52 percent. Simon is coming off a submission victory at UFC on ABC 3 that earned performance of the night honors. Simon is now 9-2 under the UFC banner, and he has 4 career submission victories. Simon is a 30-year-old American who has a black belt in BJJ and a balanced attack. Simon has knockout pop in his hands, knows his way around the canvas, and has a gas tank that’s helped him win 10 of his 11 career decisions. Simon hasn’t lost a bout since his competitive fight against Rob Font at UFC on ESPN 7. This will be Simon’s fourth career fight in Nevada.

You can make a case for either fighter in this spot, but I’m not stepping in front of Simon and this run he’s on currently. Simon also has a clear edge with his grappling and takedown success, and he could cruise to a win if able to get Yadong on the canvas. 

I’m riding the hot hand and siding with Simon. 

Read the rest of "Ricky Simon vs Song Yadong Pick – UFC Fight Night 223 Predictions & Odds 4/29/23" at Sports Chat Place

Cutelaba has lost 3 of his last 4 fights and is coming off a November loss to Kennedy Nzechukwu. Cutelaba is averaging 4.43 significant strikes per minute, with an accuracy percentage of 42 percent. Cutelaba is averaging 4.70 takedowns with an accuracy percentage of 57 percent. Cutelaba is coming off a knockout loss at UFC Fight Night 215 where he landed 30 total strikes and ate 24 total strikes. The Hulk now looks for his first win since UFC Fight Night 192. Cutelaba comes from a wrestling background while also having experience in Sambo and Judo, but he’s most known for his standup striking. Cutelaba has impressive power and one punch knockout potential, and 12 of his 16 career victories have come by knockout. Cutelaba throws nothing but heavy strikes. The issue with Cutelaba is that his conditioning fades rather quickly, and he’s 1-3-1 in his last 5 fights that have made it out of the first round. This will be Cutelaba’s seventh career fight in Nevada.

Boser has split his last 8 fights and is coming off a September loss to Rodrigo Nascimento. He is averaging 4.21 significant strikes per minute, with an accuracy percentage of 52 percent. Boser is averaging 0.00 takedowns with an accuracy percentage of 0 percent. Boser is coming off a decision loss at UFC Fight Night 210 where he landed 163 total strikes and ate 91 total strikes. A controversial decision, but Boser has now lost 3 of his last 4 fights and each of his last 4 fights that have gone the distance. The Bulldozer is a black belt in Shitō-ryū and a purple belt in BJJ. Boser relies on his cardio, hand speed and leg kicks. He works the legs well, and 4 of his last 5 wins have been knockouts. Boser has quickness for this division and has never lost via submission. Boser grew up studying karate, so leg kicks and footwork are a big part of his game. This will be Boser’s sixth career fight in Nevada.

Cutelaba probably should be favored, but this recent stretch from him hasn’t been all that encouraging. Boser has been on the wrong side of some tough decisions, he’s the more accurate striker of the two, the bigger fighter and has enough takedown defense to keep this bout where he wants it. Toss up fight, but I’m going to side with Boser and the minor upset.

Read the rest of "Tanner Boser vs Ion Cutelaba Pick – UFC on ESPN 44 Predictions & Odds 4/15/23" at Sports Chat Place

Barboza has lost 7 of his last 10 fights and is coming off a March (2022) loss to Bryce Mitchell. Barboza is averaging 3.96 significant strikes per minute, with an accuracy percentage of 44 percent. Barboza is averaging 0.38 takedowns with an accuracy percentage of 44 percent. Barboza is coming off a decision loss at UFC 272 where he landed 23 total strikes and ate 182 total strikes. Barboza will fight for the first time in over a year after dealing with a knee injury, and he looks for his first win since UFC 262. Barboza is known for his leg work and is one of the best in the sport thanks to a deep kickboxing background and being a black belt in Taekwondo. Allow Barboza to stand up and fight from the outside, he’s going to pick apart his opponent and chop away. Barboza is a black belt in Muay Thai and a black belt in BJJ as well. Barboza has a high takedown defensive percentage and doesn’t take a ton of damage on the feet. However, at 37 years old and this string of losses, it’s fair to question how much Barboza has left. This will be Barboza’s eighth career fight in Nevada.

Quarantillo has won 10 of his last 12 fights and is coming off a December win over Alexander Hernandez. Quarantillo is averaging 7.88 significant strikes per minute, with an accuracy percentage of 58 percent. Quarantillo is averaging 1.55 takedowns with an accuracy percentage of 24 percent. Quarantillo is coming off a knockout victory at UFC 282 where he landed 127 total strikes and produced 2 takedowns. The bout earned performance of the night honors, and Quarantillo is now 6-2 under the UFC banner. Quarantillo is a lengthy fighter with a 70-inch reach and does a good job of using his distance in his standup. Quarantillo has knockout power in both hands and has produced finishes in 13 of his 17 victories. Quarantillo also has good wrestling and has produced 5 career submission victories, with 2 of those wins coming via the triangle choke. At 34 years old, this is Quarantillo’s chance to start climbing in the rankings. This will be Quarantillo’s seventh career fight in Nevada.

You can never count out Barboza given his experience and what he’s done over his career. However, Barboza is up there in age and hasn’t looked great in his last few bouts. Quarantillo is the younger, fresher fighter, is more accurate with his shots and has the takedown ability to take Barboza out of his comfort zone. Barboza just hasn’t shown us enough recently to think he has another run left in him.

Give me Quarantillo.

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Holloway has split his last 8 fights and is coming off a July loss to Alexander Volkanovski. Holloway is averaging 7.24 significant strikes per minute, with an accuracy percentage of 47 percent. Holloway is averaging 0.29 takedowns with an accuracy percentage of 53 percent. Holloway is coming off a decision loss at UFC 276 where he landed 161 total strikes and ate 204 total strikes. Holloway has lost 4 of his last 7 fights, and each of his last 7 fights have gone the distance. While just 31 years old, Holloway has been in some wars, and you have to question how much time he has left as an elite fighter. Holloway is one of the most well conditioned fighters in the sport who is usually effective throughout 5 rounds and gets stronger the fight goes. He’s seen 17 of his 30 bouts end in decisions. Holloway hides his shots well and has a wide variety of attacks in his tool box, as he can be a bit unpredictable and throws kicks or elbows out of nowhere. One of the best strikers in the history of the sport and a brown belt in BJJ, Holloway trusts his boxing against anyone. This will be Holloway’s ninth career fight in Nevada.

Allen has won each of his last 12 fights and is coming off an October win over Calvin Kattar. Allen is averaging 3.40 significant strikes per minute, with an accuracy percentage of 42 percent. Allen is averaging 1.35 takedowns with an accuracy percentage of 50 percent. Allen is coming off a knockout win at UFC Fight Night 213 where he landed 28 total strikes. Allen has 7 career knockouts, and he is now 10-0 under the UFC banner. Allen has seen 4 of his last 6 fights end in decisions. Allen is a balanced fighter with a background in kickboxing and wrestling, and he’s a purple belt in BJJ. Allen has some underrated pop in his strikes, and all 4 of his submission victories have come by different techniques. This will be Allen’s fourth career fight in Nevada.

It’s hard to turn down Allen and the plus money given this run he’s been on, but this is a bout that can kind of right the ship for Holloway. He’s in a bit of a funk right now and some are questioning if he’s the same fighter given the punishment he’s taken over the years. Holloway is the bigger fighter, the more accurate striker, and he should get a striking style fight where he’s most comfortable. You also don’t get Holloway at this small of a favorite, as Calvin Kattar is the only recent time.

Give me Holloway and the cheap price.

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Adesanya has won 7 of his last 9 fights, and he’s coming off a November loss to Alex Pereira. Adesanya is averaging 3.93 significant strikes per minute with an accuracy percentage of 50 percent. He is averaging 0.06 takedowns with an accuracy percentage of 14 percent. Adesanya is coming off a fifth round knockout loss where he landed 119 total strikes and 53 percent of his significant strikes. Adesanya has seen the fifth round in each of his last 5 fights, and he now looks to avoid back to back losses for the first time in his career. This is also the first time Adesanya has been finished, so it will be interesting to see how he responds. Adesanya is simply an athletic freak who comes from a kickboxing and boxing background and is as crafty and creative as they come. He is long, rangy with an 80-inch reach, mixes in his leg kicks well and has an unorthodox stance. It’s hard to predict what Adesanya is going to do next, making him a very dangerous fighter. As he approaches 34 years old, Adesanya is still one of the best in the sport regardless of weight class. This will be Adesanya’s first career fight in Miami.

Pereira has won 7 straight fights and is coming off a November win over Adesanya. Pereira is averaging 5.23 significant strikes per minute, with an accuracy percentage of 59 percent. Pereira is averaging 0.33 takedowns with an accuracy percentage of 100 percent. Pereira is coming off a second straight knockout win, where he landed 140 total strikes and 57 percent of his significant strikes. Pereira is now 4-0 under the UFC banner and hasn’t lost since his pro debut in 2015. Pereira is approaching 36 years old, comes from a deep kickboxing and boxing background, and has shown he can get the job done in MMA despite the late start. Pereira has just 5 MMA fights since 2016 and 3 of those bouts were knockouts. A creative striker who is a black belt in kickboxing, Pereira is dangerous on his feet and has a good takedown defense as well. It’s rather impressive to see Pereira adapt to new rules under such a short time, and that win at UFC 281 has put this league on notice. This will be Pereira’s first career fight in Miami.

It’s hard to turn down the plus money with Pereira, as he’s now beaten Adesanya 3 times when you include 2 kickboxing matches. Still, Adesanya is still the more proven, complete fighter and his fighting IQ has me believing he can make the proper adjustments to finally get over this hump. You also don’t get Adesanya at prices this cheap often. I’m still on the Adesanya bandwagon.

I’ll lay the cheap price with Adesanya.

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Burns has won 8 of his last 10 fights and is coming off a January win over Neil Magny. Burns is averaging 3.42 significant strikes per minute, with an accuracy percentage of 48 percent. Burns is averaging 2.03 takedowns with an accuracy percentage of 35 percent. Burns is coming off a submission win at UFC 283 where he landed 10 total strikes and produced 1 takedown. It was the ninth career submission victory for Burns. Burns has a decorated grappling background with plenty of experience in wrestling, and he’s a third degree black belt in BJJ. Burns is quick to find a submission hold once he gets the bout to the canvas and few have his grappling credentials, but he’s also decent on his feet with some pop in his hands and a come forward style. Burns doesn’t look as uncomfortable standing up as many guys with his background do, and he has 6 knockouts on his resume. At 36 years old, Burns has really come along these last few years and has improved his resume greatly. This will be Burns’ first career fight in Miami.

Masvidal has split his last 6 fights and is coming off a March (2022) loss to Colby Covington. Masvidal is averaging 4.11 significant strikes per minute with an accuracy percentage of 48 percent. Masvidal is averaging 1.44 takedowns with an accuracy percentage of 59 percent. Masvidal is coming off a decision loss at UFC 272 where he landed 90 total strikes and ate 218 total strikes while getting taken down 6 times. Masvidal has now lost 3 straight fights and looks for his first win since UFC 244. Masvidal has never lost 4 straight fights in his career. Masvidal is a striker at heart with a boxing background, and he fought in backyards of Miami before he turned pro. Masvidal has very good footwork, has become a lot more patient when he attacks and has good variety to his strikes, gaining more creativity with experience. Masvidal is most known for his stand-up, but he’s also had great success with takedowns under the UFC banner and does have a wrestling history as well as submission grappling. Masvidal also has great cardio, but at 38 years old, you can argue time is running out for Gamebred to get these big looks. This will be Masvidal’s second career fight in Miami, his birth city.

Burns should be favored as he’s in better form, he’s the better wrestler and the naturally bigger fighter who can control things in the clinch. However, Masvidal is too scary of a striker to give this sort of plus money to. Also, this is a home fight for Masvidal, who grew up in the streets of Miami fighting with Kimbo Slice. The crowd will heavily be on his side, which never hurts. 

Burns wins on paper, but Masvidal and a potential big payout is where I lean.

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Holm vs Santos Odds

Holly Holm is the favorite sitting -245 while Yana Santos is the underdog sitting at +205. The total rounds is set at 2.5 with the over paying out -280. 

Holly Holm Betting Preview

Holly Holm comes into this fight with a 14-6 record overall and she will be in the UFC for a while after signing a new contract. Holm has won two of her last three fights and the loss was by a split decision. Holm’s last fight came against Ketlen Vieira and although she outstruck her opponent 96-85 it wasn’t enough as she lost by unanimous decision. Holm is averaging 3.24 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 2.86 significant strikes per minute. She is averaging 0.72 takedowns every 15 minutes and she is successful on 26 percent of her takedown attempts. She also stops 78 percent of her opponent’s takedown attempts. Holm isn’t much of a finisher anymore, but she’s going to try and wear down Santos here. 

Yana Santos Betting Preview

On the other side of this matchup is Yana Santos who sits with a 14-6 record overall and she has also won two of her last three fights. In her last fight against Irele Aldana in July of 2021 it was late in the first round that she was finished by knockout. Santos is averaging 4.28 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 2.94 significant strikes per minute. She is averaging 1.53 takedowns every 15 minutes and he is successful on 53 percent of her takedown attempts. She also stops 50 percent of her opponents takedown attempts. She mostly wants to keep the fight on the feet and she is only averaging 0.2 takedowns every 15 minutes. 

Shane’s Free Pick

Holm is 41 years old, but she is still going to find success in this fight. Even at 41 years old she is the more talented athlete and she’s going to really put on a show here. Holm is going to apply the pressure on the Santos here, and she’s going to be dominant here. I don’t she gets the finish, but she’s going to get the win. Back Holm to win by decision. 

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Vera vs Sandhagen Odds

Cory Sandhagen is the favorite sitting at -165 while Marlon Vera is the underdog sitting at +140. The total round is set at 4.5 with the over paying out -160. 

Marlon Vera Betting Preview

Marlon Vera comes into this fight with a 20-7-1 record overall and he has won four fights in a row. In his last fight against Dominick Cruz in August of 2022, he was able to finish the fight by knockout. He was being outstruck 92-61 but he did have three knockdowns and midway through the 4th round he finished by knockout. Vera is averaging 4.28 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 5.01 significant strikes per minute. He is averaging 0.68 takedowns every 15 minutes and is successful on 42 percent of his takedown attempts. He also stops 68 percent of his takedown attempts. He likes to lock in submissions and is averaging 1.1 submission attempts every 15 minutes. 

Cory Sandhagen Betting Preview

On the other side of this matchup is Cory Sandhagen who sits with a 15-4 record overall and he has lost two of his last three fights. The one win came in his last fight against Song Yadong. He outstruck Yadong 94-54 and at the end of the 4th round, he finished the fight by knockout. Two fights ago against Petr Yan, he lost by a unanimous decision and in the last game against TJ Dillashaw he lost by a split decision. Sanhagen is averaging 6.15 significant strikes while absorbing 4.21 significant strikes per minute. He is averaging 0.71 takedowns every 15 minutes but is only successful on 20 percent of his takedown attempts. He also stops 63 percent of his opponent’s takedown attempts. 

Shane’s Free Pick

Both of these fighters have a ton of power in their hands, and this should be quite the show for the main event. Sandhagen has been tested heading into this fight, but he has been worn down in a couple of fights as of late, and that has led to the loss. Vera is averaging 4.28 significant strikes per minute and he’s going to put the pressure on Sandhagen. He might not get the knockout, but he’s going to get the win. Back Vera to pull the upset. 

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Justin Gaethje vs Rafael Fiziev Odds

Justin Gaethje is the underdog sitting at +200 while Rafael Fiziev is the favorite sitting at -240 odds. 

Justin Gaethje Betting Preview

Justin Gaethje comes into this fight with a 23-4 record overall, but he has lost two of his last three fights. Gaethje’s last fight came against Charles Oliveria in May 2022 it was in the first round that he got into a bad position and was finished by a rear naked choke. He was outstruck 30-21 and ended up getting finished. Gaethje is averaging 7.46 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 7.85 significant strikes per minute. He wants to keep the fight on the feet and is averaging 0.00 takedowns every 15 minutes. He is also averaging 75 percent of his opponent’s takedown attempts. 

Rafael Fiziev Betting Preview

On the other side of this matchup is Rafael Fiziev who sits with a 12-1 record overall, and he has won six fights in a row. Fiziev’s last fight came against Rafael Dos Anjos in July 2022, and it was early in the fifth round that he finished the fight by knockout. Fiziev had outstruck Dos Anjos 64-54, but he was taken down twice in that fight. Fiziev is averaging 4.81 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 4.86 significant strikes per minute He is averaging 0.36 takedowns every 15 minutes, and he is successful on 40 percent of his takedown attempts. He also stops 92 percent of his takedown attempts. 

Shane’s Free Pick

Fiziev is an elite kicker, and Gaethje is going to struggle here. Gaethje is going to take a ton of damage to his legs from the kicks, and he is going to really struggle here. Fiziev is going to keep this fight on the feet, and he’s going to wear down Gaethje doing it. Gaethje is going to have no answer, and Fiziev is going to get the job done here. Back Fiziev to get the job done by decision. 

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The last fight between these two teams came in August 2022, and it looked like Usman was going to have an easy title winner. Edwards caught Usman in a bad position though late in the 5th round, and Edwards secure the victory. Usman outstruck Edwards 83-55, and Usman also had five takedowns compared to one takedown for Edwards. 

Leon Edwards vs Kamara Usman Odds

Kamara Usman is the favorite sitting at -240 while Leon Edwards is the underdog sitting at +200 odds. 

Leon Edwards Betting Preview

Leon Edwards is coming off a victory against Usman, but he’s going to need to be a lot better here. Even though he won, Edwards was being dominated until he was able to finish the fight. Two fights ago, against Nate Diaz, he was able to secure the victory by unanimous decision. Edwards is averaging 2.59 significant strikes per game while absorbing 2.28 significant strikes per minute. He is averaging 1.39 takedowns every 15 minutes and is successful on 33 percent of his takedown attempts. He also has stopped 68 percent of his opponent’s takedown attempts. In this fight, Edwards needs to get out to a fast start, and put the pressure on Usman. 

Kamara Usman Betting Preview

On the other side of this fight is Kamara Usman who sits with a 20-2 record overall, and he won 15 fights in a row before losing against Edwards. Usman seemed to take his foot off the gas in the last fight, and that led to him getting knocked out. Usman is averaging 4.55 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 2.56 significant strikes per minute. He is averaging 3.01 takedowns every 15 minutes, and he is successful on 48 percent of his takedown attempts. He also stops 97 percent of his opponent’s takedown attempts. 

Shane’s Free Pick

The only real concern I have with Usman is with his chin. He’s 36 years old now, and some fighters aren’t able to come back from a gruesome knockout like he suffered in the last fight. I do expect however that Usman is going to bounce back well. Usman isn’t going to take his foot off the gas here, and he’s going to get the finish. Back Usman to win this fight by knockout.

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