The Houston Texans and the Kansas City Chiefs will meet on Saturday in NFL Divisional Round playoffs action from Arrowhead Stadium. Here’s a Chiefs vs Texans Prediction. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best Chiefs vs Texans pick.
Houston Texans Betting Preview
Houston kicked off the season on a pretty nice overall run, but their record over the last couple of months of the year did leave something to be desired. The Texans opened on a 6-2 stretch with losses to only Minnesota and Green Bay. Otherwise, it was wins over the Colts, Bears, Jaguars, Bills, Patriots and Colts again. Houston headed into the bye on a 2-3 stretch with wins over the Cowboys and Jaguars alongside losses to the Jets, Lions, and Titans. A 2-2 record would finish things off in the regular season, featuring wins over the Dolphins and Titans around losses to the Chiefs and Ravens for a 10-7 overall record this year.
The Texans took on the Chargers in their Wild Card game over the weekend. Houston fell behind early 6-0 but then stormed back with double-digit points in the final three quarters for a nice 32-12 blowout win. CJ Stroud threw for 282 yards with one TD and a pick, while Joe Mixon led the rushing attack on 25 carries for 106 yards and a score of his own. Nico Collins caught the touchdown pass among his seven receptions for 122 yards, and Xavier Hutchinson added a 34-yard grab to place second among the Texans receivers.
Kansas City Chiefs Betting Preview
Over on the Chiefs’ side, they put together yet another strong campaign this season, and they should serve as a formidable opponent as they attempt to continue their dominance. Kansas City won their first nine games, taking out Baltimore, Cincinnati, Atlanta, Los Angeles, New Orleans, San Francisco, Las Vegas, Tampa Bay, and Denver before taking their first loss in Week 11 versus the Bills. The Chiefs would recover on another win streak, beating the Panthers, Raiders, Chargers, Browns, Texans, and Steelers before another loss to the Broncos which finished off the season at 15-2 overall in the record column.
In their (essentially meaningless) Week 18 game versus the Broncos, the Chiefs played mostly reserves for the bulk of the game—and it showed. Kansas City was down 24-0 by halftime and never scored in a 38-0 blowout defeat. QB Carson Wentz threw for just 98 yards, and Carson Steele led the rushers with his eight carries for 25 yards. Nikko Remigio was the leading Chiefs receiver on two catches for 48 yards. Peyton Hendershot added two catches as well, totaling 25 yards in the shutout defeat.
Why the Kansas City Chiefs will win
- The Chiefs have won each of their last 13 home games when playing with a rest advantage.
- The Texans have lost each of their eight previous road games against reigning Super Bowl champions.
- The Texans have failed to cover the spread in each of their last nine games when playing with a rest disadvantage.
- The Chiefs have covered the spread in each of their last six postseason games.
- The favorites have won the first half in each of the Chiefs’ last eight games.
- The Chiefs have scored the first touchdown in each of their last six games as favorites.
- The Chiefs have won the first quarter in four of their last five games at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium against teams that held a winning record.
Why the Houston Texans will win
- The underdogs have won four of the Chiefs’ last five postseason games.
- The Chiefs have failed to cover the spread in each of their last seven games as favorites following a road loss.
- The Texans have covered the spread in five of their last six games in January.
- The Texans have scored the first touchdown in eight of their last 10 games.
- The Texans have won the first half in six of their last seven road games.
- The underdogs have won the first quarter in three of the last four games between the Texans and Chiefs.
Total Points Facts
- Each of the Chiefs’ last six games as favorites against the Texans has gone OVER the total points line.
- Each of the Texans’ last six games as underdogs against the Chiefs have gone OVER the total points line.
Kansas City Chiefs Player Prop Facts
- Isiah Pacheco has scored the last touchdown in three of the Chiefs’ last four postseason games.
- Kareem Hunt has scored at least one touchdown in each of his last five appearances against AFC South opponents.
- DeAndre Hopkins has recorded 35+ receiving yards in each of his last 23 appearances with his team as a favorite following a loss.
- Isiah Pacheco has recorded 43+ rushing yards in each of his eight previous appearances following a loss.
- Patrick Mahomes has recorded 26+ completions in each of the Chiefs’ last eight games as heavy favorites (>-7.0 points).
- Isiah Pacheco has recorded 64+ rushing and receiving yards in each of his last six January appearances.
- Travis Kelce is just one away from 100 career touchdowns (including playoffs).
Houston Texans Player Prop Facts
- Diontae Johnson has scored a touchdown in each of his last four appearances with his team as a road underdog against AFC West opponents.
- C.J. Stroud has recorded 19+ rushing yards in each of the Texans’ last four games as underdogs following a win.
- Diontae Johnson has recorded 16+ receiving yards in 28 of his last 29 appearances with his team as a road underdog.
- C.J. Stroud has recorded 22+ completions in three of the Texans’ last four road games.
- Joe Mixon has recorded 76+ rushing and receiving yards in 12 of his last 15 road appearances.
- Dalton Schultz is just one away from 5 career playoff touchdowns.
Chiefs vs Texans Prediction
I’m going to take a stab at the Texans. We should have a pretty great game regardless, though. Houston looked excellent (after a slow start) versus a talented Chargers team last weekend, eventually notching a nice 429 yards of offense (261 passing) with 20 first downs. On defense, the Texans held LA to 15 first downs and 261 yards (211 passing) on the other side. The 32 points were an encouraging total; Houston had been below 28 points in six straight games prior to that victory.
As for the Chiefs, we can pretty much throw out that loss to the Broncos back on January 5, as it didn’t have much of an effect on anything outside of getting Denver into the playoffs. That said, Kansas City has been below 22 points in four of the last six games now which puts some additional strain on their (admittedly capable) defense.
The last time these teams met up back on December 21 (also at Arrowhead), the Chiefs powered out a 27-19 victory. Both teams scored in every quarter, with Kansas City edging the Texans in most categories. Houston had a couple of turnovers—both picks—and gave the Chiefs three first downs via penalties. The Texans need to play a complete game on both sides and avoid making those crucial mistakes this time. That said, coming off the nice win over the Chargers I think Houston is in good shape to power out a cover here. It’ll be a fun one to watch at any rate.