In this article, we will formulate a Lions vs Commanders prediction for this NFL game on Saturday, January 18th at Ford Field in Detroit, Michigan. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this NFC Divisional playoff game.
Detroit Lions Betting Preview
The Detroit Lions are 15-2 this season after they defeated Minnesota by a score of 31-9 to end the regular season. Detroit led 10-6 at halftime, but their lead was cut to 10-9 before they scored the last 21 points in the game for the win. The Lions outgained Minnesota by a total of 394-262, lost the turnover battle 2-0, and went 5-12 on third down in the game. Jared Goff threw for 231 yards, one touchdown, and two interceptions, while Jahmyr Gibbs added 139 rushing yards and three scores. Detroit locked up the NFC North and the #1 seed in the NFC with this victory.
Prior to that game, the Lions defeated the 49ers by a score of 40-34 and the Bears by a score of 34-17. Detroit has only lost two games so far this year, which came against Buffalo by a score of 48-42 and Tampa Bay by a score of 20-16. The Detroit offense has scored 33.2 points per game with 263.2 passing yards and 146.4 rushing yards per game, while the defense has allowed 20.1 points per game this season. Jared Goff has completed 72.4% of his passes for 4,629 yards, 37 touchdowns, and 12 interceptions, while Jahmyr Gibbs has added 1,412 yards and 16 scores on the ground. David Montgomery is expected back for this game, which should be a big boost for the Detroit running game.
Washington Commanders Betting Preview
The Washington Commanders are 12-5 this year after they defeated Tampa Bay by a score of 23-20 in their last game. Washington trailed 17-13 in the fourth quarter, but they were able to kick a field goal as time expired to get the win. The Commanders outgained Tampa Bay by a total of 350-284, won the turnover battle 1-0, and went 8-15 on third down in the game. Jayden Daniels threw for 268 yards and two touchdowns, while Terry McLaurin caught seven passes for 89 yards and one score in the game.
Prior to that win, the Commanders defeated the Cowboys by a score of 23-19 and the Falcons by a score of 30-24. Washington has won six games in a row, which came after a three-game losing streak to the Steelers, Eagles, and Cowboys. The Washington offense has scored 28.5 points per game with 215.6 passing yards and 154.1 rushing yards per game, while the defense has allowed 23 points per game this season. Jayden Daniels completed 69% of his passes for 3,568 yards, 25 touchdowns, and nine interceptions, while also rushing for 891 yards and six scores during the regular season.
Why the Lions will beat the Commanders
- The Lions have won each of their last 15 games against opponents on a winning streak.
- The Commanders have lost each of their last five games at Ford Field.
- The Lions have covered the spread in seven of their last eight games in January.
- The Commanders have failed to cover the spread in three of their last four road games against NFC opponents.
- The Lions have won the first half in nine of their last 10 games against NFC opponents.
- The Lions have scored the first touchdown in nine of their last 10 home games against NFC East opponents.
- The Lions have won the first quarter in three of their last four home games against teams that held a winning record.
Total Points Facts
- Each of the Lions’ last six home games against NFC East opponents has gone OVER the total points line.
- Each of the Commanders’ last four road games in January has gone UNDER the total points line.
Detroit Lions Player Prop Facts
- Jahmyr Gibbs has scored two or more touchdowns in three of the Lions’ last four home games against teams with a winning record.
- Jahmyr Gibbs has recorded 109+ rushing yards in each of the Lions’ last three games against NFC opponents.
- Amon-Ra St. Brown has recorded 77+ receiving yards in each of the Lions’ last five January games.
- Jared Goff has recorded 275+ passing yards in four of his last five appearances with his team as a favorite against NFC East opponents.
- Jared Goff has recorded 26+ completions in each of the Lions’ last five games with a total points line of at least 50.0.
- Jahmyr Gibbs has scored at least one touchdown in eight of the Lions’ last nine games against teams on a winning streak.
- Jameson Williams has recorded 67+ rushing and receiving yards in five of his last six appearances following a home win.
- Kerby Joseph ranked 1st in the NFL in interceptions (9) during the reg. season.
Washington Commanders Player Prop Facts
- Terry McLaurin has scored at least one touchdown in seven of the Commanders’ last eight road games.
- Austin Ekeler has recorded 27+ rushing yards in 24 of his last 27 appearances following a win.
- Jayden Daniels has recorded 24+ completions in each of the Commanders’ last four games as underdogs following a win.
- Austin Ekeler has recorded 53+ rushing and receiving yards in each of his last 17 appearances with his team as an underdog following a win.
- Austin Ekeler has recorded 26+ receiving yards in each of his last six appearances with his team as an underdog against NFC opponents.
- Heading into the Divisional Round, Jayden Daniels has recorded the equal-most passing touchdowns in a single game this season (5 vs Eagles, Week 16).
Matchup/League Facts
- The Lions ranked 1st in the NFL in points per game (33.2) during the reg. season.
- The Lions ranked 1st in the NFL in punt return yards per game (28.2) during the reg. season.
- The Commanders ranked 1st in the NFL in 4th down percentage (87.0%) during the reg. season.
- The Commanders ranked 1st in the NFL in average points scored in fourth quarters during the reg. season (8.7).
Lions vs Commanders Prediction
Detroit comes into this matchup after a much-needed bye week and they will have the home-field advantage in this contest. The Lions have been one of the top teams in the NFL all season and they are extremely tough to beat at home. Detroit has the highest-scoring offense in the NFL, but their defense is dealing with injuries and is not great. Washington should find success against this Detroit defense, but they need to be close to perfect, as they most likely won’t get some of the stops they got against Tampa Bay. I do think we will see a good amount of points in this game and I don’t think the Lions get stopped more than a couple of times. Take Detroit to cover here.